- Michael Pillsbury’s – The 100 Year Marathon review, questions, thoughts & detailed notes
- What is the point of this book?
- Style of writing & material covered
- Revelations for me
- Knock-on effects of the book
- Books / reading that is recommended throughout the book
- Other things to Learn
- 36 stratagems as listed in the book + important quotes
- Questions I’d like to know the answers to
- Here’s the full list of Notes that I took:
- Chapter 1 – The China Dream
- –Chapter 2- Warring States
- The 9 principle elements of Chinese strategy: (forms the basis of the 100 year Marathon thinking)
- Chapter 4 -Only China could go to Nixon.
- Chapter 5 – “To loot a burning house” – from the 36 stratagems of Chinese thought
- -Chapter 6 – America the Great Satan
- -Chapter 7 – China’s Message Police
- Steps to counter China
Michael Pillsbury’s – The 100 Year Marathon review, questions, thoughts & detailed notes
Sub heading: China’s Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower
Narrated by: Malcolm Hillgartner
Length: 9 hrs and 28 mins
Release date: 03-24-15
The revelations behind this book is nothing particularly new. I myself have known about this for about 8 years, since starting to study China government strategy for my Masters’ degree. I wouldn’t say it’s been out in the open – available for ‘the masses’, because its only really been talked about between intellectuals with incredibly well researched journal articles etc, and just occasionally comes up in the news. Yet at the same time, if you ARE interested in this stuff, and worried about certain country’s strategies, then certain YouTube channels like China Uncensored (https://www.youtube.com/user/NTDChinaUncensored) has been covering this issue for around 6 years.
But in terms of mass media, and what they decide to focus on, the revelations in this book and the experience/ resume of the individual that is stating it, as well as his unbiased working relationships starting from the Reagan administration though the Clinton, Obama & now Trump administrations, it’s difficult to claim that this guy doesn’t know what he’s talking about, and difficult to claim that the revelation are ‘groundless’ as the Chinese government rhetoric likes to say.
This book has seriously brought the topic of China into the limelight, and now with a US President like Trump, who is actually willing to do something, it’s now right there in the limelight whether you want it to be or not.
I myself, found it fascinating, because it essentially confirmed many of the things I knew but has the support of someone incredibly well-versed on China, even more so than myself, to the point where I learnt quite a bit about China’s actual strategy, ways of thinking, why they believe they’re at war with the USA, strategic thinking, goals and endgames.
Trump, regardless of whether you like him or don’t like him… I can assure you that what he is doing with regard to China and China trade at this particular point in time, IS the correct move. (Assuming that their goal is to maintain their national security, economic security, adhere & make sure players in the world community play by agreed rules & ensure all the freedoms & basic human rights are protected. NOT just the short term gain of maintaining the status quo in terms of cheap products. -There’s of course more at stake than just cheap products, & when the status quo is not good… it’s time to change it)
I could point you to a bunch of articles, and videos that explain it in a logical way that’s difficult to refute, or you could believe Chinese propaganda which states in a simple denial way (with the classic rhetoric) that none of this is true, or… you could read/ listen to the book and get a fantastic foundation for WHY Trumps administration is tackling the China issue so forcefully.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KBDoCTgVpk4&t=2s Who’s REALLY to Blame for the US-China Trade War?
(a fantastic explanation of WHY the current administration is in a trade war with China. & how in fact it’s because of China’s failure to live up to any World Trade Organisation promise it signed in 2001)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iPRFGYwgTro&list=PLyQwHft0jy6ewMPlinFVAeLKU2buLkAVX&index=2 Is Trump winning the trade war, with an interview with Gordon Chang
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-rH5GNuUEcE China’s Propaganda War Attacks Iowa, showcases that it’s not just quid-pro-quo tactics for tariffs against US goods, but China is going after goods produced from Trumps voting base. A move that in any other country would count as foreign interference, and would be 1 of the signals for war.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GxoT71ZfzmQ Just another really interesting look at some of the new ‘Cold War’ Tactics China has been using against America, & the FBI’s & CIA’s declaration that this is essentially what America is in with China at this current point in time.
<How China’s Economic Aggression Threatens the Technologies and Intellectual Property of the United States and the World> https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/FINAL-China-Technology-Report-6.18.18-PDF.pdf
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eRnIse9v_jc Dr Peter Navarro speaking about his report
What is the point of this book?
It pretty much says it in its sub text heading – The 100 Year Marathon – China’s Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower
In fact, here’s the publishers summary, as it seems to do a pretty good job of explaining it:
The Hundred-Year Marathon reveals China’s secret strategy to supplant the United States as the world’s dominant power and to do so by 2049, the one-hundredth anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic. Michael Pillsbury, a fluent Mandarin speaker who has served in senior national security positions in the US government since the days of Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger, draws on his decades of contact with the “hawks” in China’s military and intelligence agencies and translates their documents, speeches, and books to show how the teachings of traditional Chinese statecraft underpin their actions. He offers an inside look at how the Chinese really view America and its leaders – as barbarians who will be the architects of their own demise.
Pillsbury also explains how the US government has helped – sometimes unwittingly and sometimes deliberately – to make this “China dream” come true, and he calls for the United States to implement a new, more competitive strategy toward China as it really is and not as we might wish it to be. The Hundred-Year Marathon is a wake-up call as we face the greatest national security challenge of the 21st century.
©2015 Michael Pillsbury (P)2015 Blackstone Audio, Inc.
The point of the book of course, is to wake up the masses, the average person that didn’t really consider China in his or her life before, but now… with this undeniable evidence has to come face to face with reality in terms of how China aims to change and dominate their country for the Chinese governments benefit.
This book is a must read for anyone that has a passing interest in International Politics, who is interested in country strategy, who is living in China or has family members living in China, who ARE Chinese themselves, but don’t agree with the CCP policies and pretty much anyone that could be affected by Chinese rule.
….which should be just about everybody by this point.
Politicians should definitely read/ listen to this book.
Narration is fine.
The only thing that I got confused on is the pronunciation of some key concepts in Chinese. Originally I thought he had a Taiwanese accent because Pillsbury himself studied Chinese in Taiwan, however I now see that it was read by a narrator, not by Pillsbury himself.
This is a very minor thing and it won’t affect anyone that doesn’t speak Chinese.
Other than that, no qualms with the narration.
Style of writing & material covered
It runs along at a relatively quick pace and describes strategy, origins of thinking, concepts unique to Chinese culture, ways of subversion, ways of manipulation, end-game strategy and possible counter measures countries can take to prevent the CCP from achieving their goal. (Chinese domination by the year 2049, including the reunification with Taiwan, conquering of the South China Sea, and an international order that is favourable to China)
It’s like a juicy thriller book… but happening in real life… which is also pretty scary.
My dad has listened to it twice, myself once, my brother is now reading it, a friend who works for the government is now reading it and another friend who lived in China is also currently reading it and enjoying it. And from what I understand several government members and politicians have read/ listened to this book already and its helping to give them a more informed outlook on the Chinese Government and their intentions.
All in all it’s a very interesting book. It’s not one that you can simply go for a run and passively listen to it though. It’s one that you want to take notes, and really understand & reflect on everything that is stated.
Just as I did.
Below are my notes on this book, along with some interesting readings mentioned throughout the book, some interesting quotes & some strategic points; along with some questions that I would like to ask Mr Pillsbury if I have the chance.
Revelations for me
At the start of the book, there’s an awkward story of ‘Asking the weight of the Emperor’s cauldron’. The cauldrons were meant to represent one of the mandates of heaven, by having these 3 cauldrons with you, it meant that you were the 1 true leader.
The actual phrase 问(wèn)鼎(dǐng)中(zhōng)原(yuán) -meaning ‘to plan to seize power of the whole country’, is now used in China’s strategic thought, and most definitely is used throughout stories, TV shows and movies instilling the idea that this is a key concept in the heads of most Chinese citizens living in China.
The idea behind it is that if person B asks person A ‘what is the weight of the cauldrons?’, then person A will know you’re thinking of stealing them to become the leader yourself.
The key is to ask when you already have the leadership in everything but formal recognition in your grasp already.
This also comes down to the concept of ‘Xu er’ (for which I haven’t yet managed to find the exact Chinese meaning. Yet it essentially translates to ‘the propensity to take advantage of a situation & best your opponent’.
The question then becomes how do you influence the environment, manoeuvre your pieces (army, economy, whatever) to create ‘xu er’ which is balanced in your favour? AND how do you know for sure when ‘xu er’ IS heavily favoured towards you? Because, then is the time to strike.
What I’m supposing from these lessons is that with this current economic and world affairs climate, China was aiming for the 100th anniversary of the CCP coming into power to finally dominate the world stage once again, however dear leader Xi Jin Ping has decided already that ‘xu er’ is already heavily in his favour, that is that China’s manoeuvrings, (technology transfer centres, stealing of Intellectual Property, cyber infiltration & hacking, state-sponsored corporate espionage, foreign interference, economic dependency on China for many countries, continual cheating within the World Trade Organisation system of countries, censorship, propaganda, limiting of foreign media, economic bullying, military bullying etc, proved economic threats of countries and infrastructure debt traps) combined with the legal matters of seriously and impressively building up China’s economy; has put China in such a strong position AND combined with the knowledge of how they know other countries work, and are likely to react to certain actions, the CCP feels confident that the propensity to strike is heavily weighed in their favour.
Of course, that was until Donald Trump came along, who… as we all know is not a politician and is not beating about the bush when it comes to trade, and has made trade balance with China a key point.
Essentially what the revelation is, is that while most people who have truly studied China and everything they’re doing, believe it might be too late to start to combat China; Donald Trump, the state department & the American administration in general is starting to prove that is not true.
Xi Jing Ping has decided to reveal his hand 31 years earlier than expected (than the 2049 expected date), and to come back to the metaphor just might have ‘asked the weight of the emperor’s cauldrons’ too early.
Therefore there is of course a couple of knock-on effects for this book.
I have no doubt that the reading of this book suddenly makes the threat of China (in reality the threat of the CCP) undeniable to even the most liberal, adverse and close-minded person out there.
There is no doubt that many people within the current American administration has read this book due to the sheer amount of current topics coming out about this issue, that are referencing many things talked about in this book.
China has even made an official response in the form of their Ambassador the USA- saying ‘I would not recommend this book’. Which of course just makes you want to read it more.
Knock-on effects of the book
Michael Pillsbury is now a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, the same institute that Mike Pence decided to give his talk about China on.
You can watch that here:
Trump has named him the leading authority on China
The news article from South China morning post (sometimes anti CCP, lots of the time pro CCP, classic mix of sophistry there) takes the sole opinion of the Chinese ambassador to the US, and states things as if both opinions are valid. Lots of classic CCP rhetoric here “accusations are groundless” etc. “Baseless” but it sounds like similar tactics the Vatican uses to dissuade people from watching angels and demons, thereby making it a record breaker.
Chinese strategy is most of the time pretty smart at the high levels but still failing for the most basic of things… If an oppressive government says it’s bad…Guess what, people are reading/ listening to it.
Note. ‘Hawks’ is a concept used in the 100 year marathon book, used because it’s derived from the Chinese word 鹰派 (hawk – one who demonstrates an actively aggressive or combative attitude, person who favours military force or action) Yet this is a Chinese only terms. The people that ordered this article to be written didn’t take this into account. They have parroted the American writing, yet in doing so have revealed that they are attempting quid-pro-quo tactics, without really addressing the point.
White House National Trade Council Director Peter Navarro on Chinese Economic Aggression
Books / reading that is recommended throughout the book
- Henry Kissinger’s book ‘On China’ – He talks about xu er
- China strategic culture exhibition or group – need to check into.
- The Battle of Redcliff. Good example of strategic manoeuvrings.
A seminal moment in military history
Less powerful against more powerful
Caocao vs Jun Leung
The romance of the 3 kingdoms. Has all these proverbs in it
- ‘The General Mirror’ was Mao’s favourite book, – lessons from the Warring State period and how it can be used in the future. Must read this book. https://www.amazon.com/General-Mirror-Aid-Government-Chinese/dp/7511225691 Chinese language version
- ‘The China Dream’ book written by Liu Ming Fu – a general talking about the 100 year marathon. (this was the 1st reference that mentioned the 100 year marathon & the one that Xi Jin Ping referenced from.)
The China Dream book is in the recommended reading list for all state control officers
- ‘Strategic Lessons from China’s Ancient Past’ – is a 9 book series by a bunch of Chinese generals drawing lessons from the Warring States period
- Read Charlie Wilson’s war
- Steve Coll book called ‘Ghost Wars’ may be an interesting one to read.
- ‘The Tiananmen Papers’ – might also be an interesting thing to read.
- Look into the Wikipedia for who exactly was Mr White, & who exactly was Miss Green because they sound like 2 very interesting & capable characters.
- ‘The history of US aggression against China’ – by Long Teung could be an interesting one to read to find out exactly what they’re teaching with china. (Can’t find)
-A good example of Chinese propaganda against America and to teach the young people basically to hate America.
- Information about the boxer rebellion and how many Chinese were killed there
- ‘Silent Conquest’ – a 90 minute video produced in 2013 by the Peoples Liberation College (the same as West Point military college but for China)
- So 2nd in command or 2nd in the rank of the politburo was Li Peng, – need to check into him
- China has an ‘Institute of American Studies’ which would be quite interesting to take a look at.
- ‘To Change China’ by author Jonathan Spence from Yale university.
All about Westerners trying to add value & help China, not just Americans
(published 1980, no audio book available)
- The New York Times did the report of Wen Jiabao which was the $ 2 billion family wealth, and then all the journalists got kicked out of China including Bloomberg and a bunch of others. https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/10/25/business/the-wen-family-empire.html?ref=asia
- Check out Colonel Daishu (remember because it sounds like Colonel Kangaroo) that continually makes American conspiracy theories for how America is trying to take over and what not.
- Must read ‘Unrestricted Warfare’- https://www.c4i.org/unrestricted.pdf
- There’s a 5th spring and autumn annals
- Look up Michael Pillsbury YouTube on South China Sea.
- Look up ‘the Jasmine Revolution’ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Chinese_pro-democracy_protests
- Look up Paul Mooney as well.
- Ba shuo an human rights
- Read a bit about Lee Kwan Yew’s understanding on China.
https://medium.com/@ameet/5-things-i-learned-about-chinas-rise-as-a-global-superpower-from-lee-kuan-yew-dcb5eeb4b278 an article talking about lessons from LKY with regard to China.
Audio book of <Lee Kuan Yew – The Grand Master’s Insights on China, United States, and the World>
- ‘The Rise of the Great Powers’ – produced by the CPP, is a tv series that follows the Warring States periods, could be a very interesting one to watch. (as I believe its slowly conditioning the masses to accept strategic thinking and accept certain countries (America) as the big country that needs to be dominated)
(all in Chinese, no English subtitles available)
- Ying Pai text called ‘On Grand Strategy’. (Without the author, I can’t find the right book)
Praises America to push aside Europe to become a dominant power by 1965.
- ‘The Eclipse of Great Britain’ by Anne Orde ; Arron Freedbergs ‘The Weary Titan’ ; & Lan Ching Shang’s ‘Recasting the Imperial Far East’
The 3 books that the Communist Party school has for required reading for how a rising power can outdo/ out compete & out-maneuverer a hegemon.
- RedCliff (2008) movie might be worth a watch though
Other things to Learn
– learn how to play Weiqi, Chinese chess.
-Find & read the 36 Stratagems https://www.amazon.com/Military-Strategy-Classics-Ancient-China-ebook/dp/B00EPMFONC Incudes:
The Six Secret Teachings – Jiang Ziya
The Art of War – Sun Tzu
Methods of War – Sima Rangju
The Book of Wuzi – Wu Qi
The Book of Wei Liaozi – Wei Liao
The Three Strategies of Huang Shigong
The Thirty Six Stratagems
Questions and Replies: Tang Taizong and Li Jing
36 stratagems as listed in the book + important quotes
-“When capable feign incapable”
“Seek truth from facts” Deng Xiao Ping
“Take the tree with false blossoms” – part of the 36 stratagems.
“Hide in plain sight”, the Deng Xiao Ping theory, which is apparently party of the 36 stratagems
“Make something from nothing” – one of the 36 great stratagems
“To loot a burning house” – from the 36 stratagems of Chinese thought
Questions I’d like to know the answers to
-According to the books website, the book has been translated to Chinese and is available for distribution in Taiwan. It is NOT available freely within China, however it IS available to the Military College press. Undoubtedly the Hawks, and the major political strategy departments including the School of American Studies has read this book and studied it, What are their responses on this book?
What have they commented so far?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Pillsbury#Books “The Hundred-Year Marathon, also published in Korean, Japanese, Taiwan-Chinese and a PRC-Chinese edition published by Chinese National Defense University, and published in Hindi and Mongolian.”
The only thing I found was an article from the South China Morning Post (which is sometimes with the CCP, sometimes against) stating that the Chinese ambassador to the USA does not recommend it. The article which draws almost entirely from an interview of him on FOX news states his criticism towards the book, yet does in no way go out to find other opinions. Clear propaganda & one -sided opinion. Yet it’s the response we could expect from someone trying to deny claims made throughout the book.
Its similar to when the Vatican speaks out against a certain movie or book, in fact it makes it more intriguing, as you know its something they don’t want getting out.
Yet, 1 person’s viewpoints (even if it IS the Chinese ambassador to the United States) isn’t really enough.
–What are the 24 trade talking points that were leaked? (The ones that China is not talking about at all when in discussion to the current trade dispute)
-China precisely measures global strength and it’s own national progress using specific KPIs. Military strength makes up less than 10%. Chinese assessments of national interest is now and more highly weighed: economics, foreign investment, technological innovation, ownership of natural resources.
What are the exact KPI’s that China keeps track of to measure its own national progress?
And can the USA or other countries begin keeping track of the same with regard to China?
But also for their own countries?
-Does Taiwan (ROC) have to ask for permission from the USA to declare formal independence from China (PRC) ?
-Taiwan is back by military agreements with the US, however in previous years the USA has played down absolute commitment for coming to Taiwan’s aid due to not wanting to destroy relations with the PRC. Given the knowledge that the PRC is likely to invade as soon as Taiwan declares independence, and that when that happens US ally agreements will come into play, it would essentially mean that Taiwan’s intention to declare independence could provoke a war between the USA & China, which the USA might not be ready for, for whatever reason (still recovering from the last engagements, zero public support etc).
I would imagine then, that the USA is putting pressure on Taiwan to make sure they don’t declare independence and in the meantime have promised solidarity for economic, loans & basic defence agreements.
If this assumption is correct, I would imagine that IF Taiwan DOES wish to declare independence then they would have to informally, but officially ask the USA for permission to do so.
On the same token, if the USA is ready to go to a conventional (not asymmetric) war with mainland China (PRC), then they could give the green light to Taiwan to declare independence, and make it seem that apparently through no fault of their own it was China that started a war, and the USA now has its justification to step in an defend their ally as per the agreements.
-Are these assumptions and thinking close to the reality?
Here’s the full list of Notes that I took:
-Ying pai -means hawks or eagles and they are the Nationalists in the Chinese party. 鹰(yīng)派(pài)
硬派= also ying pai = hard liners. Remember it like a pun to mean hardliner…which it pretty much does.
-Need to read ‘Unrestricted Warfare’ – the PDF that I downloaded
-Dad needs to read it too.
-“Hide in plain sight”, the Deng Xiao Ping theory, which is apparently party of the 36 stratagems for which I need to look up.
-All of them designed to fight against a more powerful component using the enemy’s strengths against them.
-The author states that ‘The Chinese must speak loudly to make the tones audible’ which I don’t agree with, I don’t even think you need to talk with tones to be honest.
-So he says that the English language uses around 10,000 different syllables, whereas the Chinese language only has about 400, therefore many words sound similar.
-Apparently many China experts in the USA don’t know how to speak Chinese, they can speak a few words and can maybe feign competence, but don’t REALLY know how to speak the language. I probably fall into the middle of this where its definitely not fluent, its not enough to do translation on the fly for verbal communication, yet it is enough to sit down and do a document translation or something like that.
-Many phrases from the hawks 鹰派 are obscure references to ancient history, which is what I’ve always been saying with a lot of the culture, that its historical culture, so dates back to obscure poems etc that Chinese people know well, but westerns have perhaps heard OF them, simply don’t know, or will in fact never know.
-It’s important to watch what china does, yes. But it’s equally important to watch what china does NOT do.
-SO the assumption #1 is that ‘Engagement brings complete cooperation’
-These are all dangerous assumptions for which he now believes were assumed incorrectly.
-They believed that engagement with China would allow china to integrate properly and for them to adhere to a ‘rules-based’ international society, but obviously that is not the case.
–False assumption #2 ‘China is on the road to democracy’ me. – yep, completely agree that it is not.
-Authoritarian capitalism is a good way to put it, from whichever writer wrote that.
-Many china watchers said that local elections are fuelled in the small towns and that’s how democracy is rising, as a grass roots kind of thing, however the people who have actually lived in china are well aware that’s not actually true, everything is corrupt.. or rather not what they say it is from my thinking.
-I think it all comes down to the media miss-representing things, so when they say ‘grass-roots democracy’ as the title, no body actually reads the full thing, or speaks to the people that are involved.
So the author apparently talked to some of the ‘candidates’ and apparently they’re not allowed to criticise the other people, they’re not allowed to argue and debate with the other person, they’re not allowed to campaign, they’re not allowed to criticise ANY federal government practices even if it goes against their own community, they’re essentially just people going ‘I will help you’ but they can’t really make any promises or criticise what’s already being done.
-The only thing they could do is compare 1 person’s personal qualities compared to another person’s personal qualities.. but obviously in a good way so as to not actively criticise the other person.
–False assumption #3 ‘China the fragile flower’
-In 1996 China had a bunch of delegations for which people came to China where they repeated the message that China was in decline, they needed aid, there were corrupt leaders, lacking in technology essentially asking for help for the technology transfer so they could take advantage of it. Obviously from today’s perspective they were making false claims so as to take advantage of free tech transfer on the unwritten assumption that with it they could continue to move to a more democratic society, and that without it …China would fail.
–False assumption #4 ‘China wants to be, and IS, just like us’
-America believes that the aspiration of every other country is to be just like the United States.
-Chinese literature and writings on strategy seem to prize deception over clarity & transparency.
-They prize deception over overt action.
-In many classic Chinese tales, the hero using cunning to manipulate others and to save the day or win the day.
-China strategic culture exhibition or group – need to check into.
–False assumption #5 – ‘China’s hawks are weak’
-It says at the start of the book that ‘no secrets are divulged or unveiled and were checked through with the CIA to make sure of that’ It shows that even though no secretive information, it HAS actually been checked through with the CIA, which shows that the information contained within is of high importance.
-Basically he’s stating exactly the conclusion that I came to, which is that the party is trying to make a revenge for the century of humiliation (the 一百年耻辱) and then overtake America as the economic, political & military leader of the world by the year 2049. – this is the actual 100 year marathon, because the CCP came to power in the year 1949.
-They tend to set up an economic order which is favourable to China. And from everything that I’ve seen, what is favourable to china, is not completely unfair to anyone else, because they work from a ‘zero-sum’ game, they talk about win-win deals, I win because you lose is something that most of china seems to believe in.
-They can succeed through deception or at least by denial of any frightening plans, which is once again what they’ve been doing for decades. ‘Oh no, we don’t plan to build islands in the south china sea’ ‘oh yeah, look at that, we have islands in the South China Sea’ – they always intended it. (or by changing the narrative from history, ‘yeah, we never said that’ The CCP confiscating old maps of China that don’t include the South China Sea, because that conflicts with the narrative of now that is meant to state that they’ve always claimed it)
-Chinese nation long portrayed itself as backward nation in need of assistance for its harmonious or peaceful rise which is exactly what Hu Jintao referred to China as. And even now they state exactly this ‘we are a developING nation’.
-Essentially he’s saying that the predominant school of thought that China’s rising the economy but doesn’t want to take over the world is because of the short term thinking in terms of ‘we want more funding for the next batch of research’ ‘we want a more stable and bullish economy for investment purposes’ ‘better market situation‘ by the end of the day, its not 100% correct. Yes they want their economy bigger (they want twice as big as the USA’s) but they ALSO want military dominance, and they also want political effect on other countries as well, so it’s not the whole picture. And you’re losing out because people are keeping the real information to themselves, because it advantages themselves to do so.
-The Global Times is the Hawks sponsored newspaper which has been exported abroad.
The book also talks about Xi Jin Ping, so it’s obviously recent and relevant enough to include some of his policies as well.
-Hu Xi Jin is the editor of The Global Times
-China views of residual Warfare is one of Michael Pillsbury’s other books. (should try to read as much of his stuff as possible)
-These hardliner views are not just in a minority, they’re actually in the majority of the strategic geopolitical thinkers, these are the people that are obviously governing the country.
Whether or not it’s in the mainstream of the general population, that’s another thing and up for debate, but at the end of the day it’s the views of the actual leaders and influencers that you need to pay attention to, not the general population who doesn’t have any say in the strategic direction of the country.
-The challenge for many western policy makers is that many of the actual viewpoints for strategic decisions makers are not held in public, they’re opaque and held behind closed doors, they’re not available for even Chinese public to see/ her about, and they’re definitely not easily available for USA or other countries people to see & hear about. So its trying to figure out exactly what they are/ what they are.
-Says the World Bank helped China succeed.
-For decades the US government has freely handed over sensitive information, military technology, other technologies to the Chinese government, the case in point for me was Bill Clinton. At the end of the day China thinks its’ at war with America, so all of this is an incredibly bad idea.
The assumption that China will integrate to a world system is just complete wrong. So that’s why America was doing it, because they believed the assumption, but in reality it was completely wrong, and China is just using all of this for their own benefit with the goal over dominating America in the long run.
-‘What we haven’t given the Chinese, they’ve stolen’ (the IP rights issue)
-So apparently in recent years, this guy has been asking leaders of Chinese think tanks ‘what do you think of Chinese led world order?’ and whereas they wouldn’t have talked about it a decade ago, now they’re beginning to talk about it with a lot of feverently meaning that this is something they’ve deliberated on for some time.
-China wants to restore its country to its proper place in the world which was about 300 years ago when it controlled about 1 3rd of global trade.
Chapter 1 – The China Dream
“There cannot be 2 suns in the sky, nor 2 emperors on the earth” by Confucius
-The road to renewal ‘fu xing zhu lu’ – quote by Xi Jin Ping
There’s an obelisk of 10 stories high in Tiananmen square that is not translated into English which says something to the equivalent of ‘we have suffered 100 years of shame by foreign powers and we will put ourselves back on top’
Me– I did not know about that before.
-For some reason the Chinese really got into Darwin’s Theory of evolution, but they translated the theory of evolution as ‘Dao gai’ as elimination. Rather more harsh look at it, but that’s what they’re looking at for foreign policy and international order with America, they’re looking to eliminate the other, not to for the other to simply fall by the wayside.
“The weak are dominated by the strong & the stupid by enslaved by the wise” wrote a Chinese author in relation to Charles Darwin’s theory of evolution
-He also wrote – “all members of an inferior race must be devoured a superior one” (talking about china 7 the areas surrounding china.
-This was Sun Yat Sen (Guangzhou university named after him) He then fell out of favour and moved to Taiwan, but he developed all his writings around the concept of racial superiority and racial pondering & thinking.
-Even before Mao read the writings of Karl Marx, Mao read a writer that was talking about the domination of 2 races, the whites and the yellows. – the whites currently had the upper hand, but if the yellows changed their strategy, they could win.
-Dominated by the force of struggle which is interesting as its reflective even of modern society and people that’s not related to strategic thought with the average citizen talking about 斗争 and the little emoticon for it used on WeChat
-The warring states period is a must read, or at least research for its an incredibly important part of Chinese history for which Mao has drawn a lot from, and which the Chinese military continues to draw a lot from in terms of their strategic thinking.
-The General Mirror was Mao’s favourite book, – lessons from the Warring State period and how it can be used in the future. Must read this book.
-The Russians figured out the Chinese plan, way, way before the Americans ever did.
-So the idea for the Chinese is to work with 1 partner to get aid & resources and pledging themselves to work against the enemy of the enemy. And when that fails or they’ve had enough of that, they switch sides so 1st China & Russia together to work against the Americans, then America & China together to work against the Russians. & now possibly China & Russia again to work against America again. And then I guess when they’re strong enough, they venture out by themselves, or start to lead coalition for which they dominate (like the Shanghai Cooperative Organisation)
-Stratagem “kill with a borrowed sword, or attack with the strength of another”
-I think this has some relation to “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” (is still my enemy though)
-Zhang (zhan) Zhong guo meng – Xi Jin Ping’s China dream reference and political talking point was actually referring to the 100 year marathon, the date of 2049 when the dream will be realised. So it’s not the American dream or the Australian dream to have a wife , 2 kids and a house, but China’s (the nations) dream- the date that Chinese people will realise as being the top of the world economically and militarily.
-China Dream book written by Liu Ming Fu – a general talking about the 100 year marathon. (this was the 1st reference that mentioned the 100 year marathon & the one that Xi Jin Ping referenced from.)
-Talking about how the Soviet Union had failed to supplant America as the global power, and then talking about the 8 ways (coincidental lucky number) that China would succeed.
-China’s rejuvenation is another way to say China’s dream, or the 100 year marathon.
-Fu xing 复兴 – the word for rejuvenation
-So the book in the original mandarin is meant to be quite strongly worded and even aggressive, whereas the translated version (translated segments – not all of it was translated) is meant to be quite peaceful.
-The China Dream book is in the recommended reading list for all state control officers.
-Zhao Zhen Yang – his philosophy called ‘the under heaven system’ -published in 2005
http://www.zhongdaonet.com/NewsInfo.aspx?id=4992 (Not specifically the right one, but does talk about the same key concepts)
-Confirmation that China had studied America’s military strategy but had also studied their (china’s) ancient history and their strategy there.
-So far no confirmation as of yet, whether or not they studied Japanese economic strategy towards America & the West
–Chapter 2- Warring States
Spring autumn warring states period we studied in university, this is the period of time that the Chinese hawks are drawing from for their military strategies.
-so 7 warring states were consolidated through much war and manoeuvrings into 1, which was the Qin dynasty. The word China comes from the ‘Qin’ dynasty.
-China for the most part from the modern creation of 1949, has played down the significance of the Warring States period which obviously plays a key role now, and up-played the Confucianism, passive thinking of the Confucian period for modern Chinese thinking, which of course is not exactly true in the reality of the situation.
-The Chinese leaders are beginning to become more public about the lessons and strategies that are derived from the Warring States period & admission that a lot of the strategies are coming from this.
-Either to the point that military communiques intercepted by the US government have references to the Warring States period.
-The Chinese government has ‘military only’ book stores, for which there are a whole bunch of lessons from the Warring States period
-Strategic Lessons from China’s Ancient Past – is a 9 book series by a bunch of Chinese generals drawing lessons from the Warring States period
The 9 principle elements of Chinese strategy: (forms the basis of the 100 year Marathon thinking)
- Induce complacency to avoid alerting your opponent
- Manipulate your opponent advisors
- Be patient for decades or longer to achieve victory
- Steal your opponent’s technologies and ideas for strategic advantage
- Military might is not the critical factor for winning a long-term competition
- Recognise that the hegemon will take extreme, even reckless action to maintain its hegemon
- Never lose sight of ‘xu er’ (pronounced shore)
- Establish & employ metrics to measure your status against other potential targets/ against the hegemon
- Always be vigilant to avoid being encircled or deceived by others
2 components of ‘xu er’ – 1. deceiving others to do your bidding for you, 2. Waiting for the maximum propensity point to take advantage of a situation
-Essentially here, be cynical, be sceptical of others intentions, what they plan to do, & others trustworthiness towards you.
-Note – learn how to play Weiqi, Chinese chess.
-Modern China’s 1st foreign minister was a general
-The 1 child policy was made by a Chinese weapon’s designer
-(everything related to strategy is done for the most part through the military – if it involves the country in the future, then it has to do with strategic thought, and therefore the generals are called in to weigh in on potential strategy going forward)
-The phrase ‘on the outside be benevolent, on the inside be ruthless’ was circulated in Chinese textbooks in the 1970s
-Zhu & Zhou dynasties, the rise of 1 and then the fall of another – this reminds me of the science fiction book called Hyperion & Edyimon.
-To ask the weight of the Emperor’s cauldrons is to let the other one know that you want to be the new emperor and you want to have the cauldrons to yourself.
问鼎中原 Ask cauldron China source – literal definition； (dictionary definition) = to plan to seize power of the whole country (idiom)
-If you had the cauldrons meant that you had the seat of power.
Me: need to look this up on YouTube, or find the source of the idiom , or read the story.
-The Chinese term ‘da tun’ means – an era of unipolar dominance
Me– can’t find in the Chinese dictionary
-Mercantilism is kind of the militarisation or protection of trade and the rights of production etc
Official definition = Mercantilism is a national economic policy that is designed to maximise the exports of a nation
It promotes government regulation of a nation’s economy for the purpose of augmenting state power at the expense of rival national powers.
-Basically the Chinese government is scared of resource scarcity and a fight for resources which is why they’re trying to get as much as they can now or invest in them through legal means so that they will always have the means for production.
-Basically this is the same as the Europeans doing it in the 17th & 18th centuries by way of colonisation.
-This stealing of technology and harvesting ideas from the US is actually coming from the Warring States period, and is something that they will continue doing in the future as it is a fixed pillar of their strategy.
-It says that the American government finds it illegal or unethical to do it exactly the same. Me – but in reality they’ve been doing it for years, it’s just not in the public eye.
-The idea of tricking an enemy to spending too much on their military is from the Warring States lessons, me- yet it is also from modern day terrorism as we know from ‘The Accidental Guerrilla’ yet it is also something that the Soviet Union employed against the USA with their idea of inflatable tanks to fool US spy planes to ever increase spending to keep up with Soviet spending.
(Can create a war of exhaustion)
-China has invested heavily in ‘asymmetric warfare’ – designed to get the biggest bang for the buck
–The Emperors Cauldrons might be a good name for a book.
-The concept of ‘xu er’ is the alignment of things, or the propensity of things to happen.
-Only a skilled strategist can exploit for success.
-A significant concept of ‘Xu er’ is called Wu wei , which is to get other nations to do the work for you.
-Apparently the concept of ‘Xu er’ is heavily influenced by the Daoist religion
-‘Xu er’ is apparently used to measure the aesthetics of Chinese calligraphy as well
-Mao has an essay about Chinese strategy , and at the moment it is still required reading for all Chinese leaders. What is this essay?
-So the concept of ‘Xu er’ is about encircling an enemy whilst also preventing their ability to encircle you.
-Deceive your component into complacency.
-Try to encircle them.
-So basically the Chinese chess game ‘wei qi’ is all about ‘Xu er’ , all about encirclement. If you can make more chances or ruses to encircle the enemy, without them knowing this fact, then you’ve got more chances to win. If you can understand/ ensure that the other player doesn’t know the game is about encirclement or about deception, then you can understand how the USA is with relation to China.
-Shu er, xu er, concept for finding weaknesses and when to take advantage of them, but also trying to encircle the enemy whilst not allowing them to encircle you, by denying them a build-up of their forces
-Henry Kissinger’s book on China. He talks about xu er
-The original impression of Chinese culture is that they were artistic it was all about poetry, calligraphy food etc. But in reality it’s all about quantitative measurements about forces and strategy
-China precisely measures global strength and it’s own national progress using specific KPIs. Military strength makes up less than 10%. Chinese assessments of national interest is now and more highly weighed: economics, foreign investment, technological innovation, ownership of natural resources.
-Chinese assessments of national power
-When they dominate these…They will then be the world power
The battle of Redcliff. Good example
A seminal moment in military history
(crap Chinese pronunciation, but explains the whole thing – doesn’t really explain the actual battle of Redcliff though)
-RedCliff (2008) movie might be worth a watch though
Less powerful against more powerful
Cao cao vs Jun leung
The romance of the 3 kingdoms. Has all these proverbs in it
The boats stuck together = this story
-Help shape new momentum = xu er.
-‘Wait and see tactic’…Waiting to see the best opportunity to strike. OR espionage helps to define propensity, provides the ideal opportunity to attack
-2 thoughts from 2 prominent military analysts
Chapter 4 -Only China could go to Nixon.
-China has been having great strategy with each American president.
-Has always had well placed spies within the USA.
‘Sitting on the top of the mountain to observe 2 tigers fighting each other‘. A proverb to show America looking to see 2 communist countries maybe about to destroy each other
-The United States is a useful tool for China, not a long term ally
-Mao enacted 2 messages
- Invitation of Nixon to Beijing 2. Test 2 nuclear weapons close to Soviet border.
China, with Mao, first reached out to America first
-Zhou en lai, “America is the ‘ba’ ”
Ba = leader, provides military order to the known world, more accurate is tyrant.
-China saw America as the wrong doers
Detente = a relaxing of tension between 2 countries
-Kissinger provided many covert technology offers to China to side with them against the Soviet Union
Kissinger’s moves actually went against US laws and regulations
-Deng xiao ping was actually a eager inside the Politburo, but docile on the outside
“Hide your ambitions, build your capability”
-Cao cao, one of histories greatest tyrants. Best example of a ba.
Liu bai is like an eagle, when it is hungry it will work for you, but when it is well fed it will fly away. Deng xiao ping to Gerald Ford
-America missed that America would build China into an equal…But that China would fly away afterwards
-Asking the weight of the emperor’s cauldrons
Liu bai and cao cap story, sounds very interesting
A dragon can assume any size
-I like how he mixes old stories which have influenced Chinese thought with modern examples
-1979 Deng visited America
Toured capitalistic stuff. On Time Magazine’s cover twice
Signed agreements to speed up scientific exchanges
-Reagan’s administration provided many opportunities for China to develop their space research & space weapons research, satellite technology, they even visited DARPA which was responsible for making the internet plus many sensory array technologies as we know from The Pentagon’s Brain.
-Note. Read Charlie Wilson’s war
-The US-China relationship reached its peak during the Reagan administration
-At this time the author (Michael Pillsbury) had been promoted to the civilian equivalent of a 3 star general
-2 billion dollars of Chinese arms were sold to support the anti-soviet people within the time, or up till the end of Reagan’s administration.
-Steve Cole book called ‘Ghost Wars’ may be an interesting one to read.
Chapter 5 – “To loot a burning house”
– from the 36 stratagems of Chinese thought
-Even in 1989 when they were about to hold the democratic protests and the Tiananmen massacre was about to happen, China was claiming that elections were happening at a local level in villages, which is exactly what they claim now. And that State Owned Enterprises could and would be dissolved (slowly) but as we know now…we nothing further along, all of this was just rhetoric that the international community believed.
-Particularly a guy close to the author – that the Hawks would use the army to clear the square. This guy had been paying attention to the Hawks & how the Hawks were influencing the Party, whilst everyone else at the time assumed that these hardliners were a minority, they were of course wrong in this assumption.
-He talks about the Tiananmen square massacre, and the lead up to it in general
-Within a year of the Tiananmen square protest/ massacre the government had closed lots of publications- 12% of newspapers, 15% of social science journal articles etc, 76% of any news related publications, in an attempt to stop discussion about certain issues and really starting to control the media.
-So essentially what happened with the Tiananmen massacre, Deng Xiao Ping allowed the sentiment that China was opening up to democracy in order to gain aid & convince The West that this was happening so that they could gain favour with them, but obviously the side effect was that the people within the country (the average Chinese people) believed this was happening, but in fact this was a ruse. So he allowed it to continue for a while, but during Tiananmen square he realised that he had allowed it to go on for too long, and that enough was enough.
-Deng Xiao Ping was actually really sympathetic towards the anti-America Hawks within China.
-Within the party, they stated it as a US -led psychological attempt to overthrow the party. Whether or not this is just written down, or BELIEVED and written down might be a different story.
(propaganda can be written down to convince the masses, but the government might not & probably doesn’t believe it themselves, it’s just something to gain favour by manipulating the facts towards the masses)
-The Tiananmen square protests startled Deng Xiao Ping and other leaders as they believed, (they really truly believed) that the Party had unquestioned legitimacy across the country, so to find out at that time that they didn’t, either (and the author doesn’t go into it in any detail at this time) this is really because of the culture of face and people basically lying to them, and then controlling the censorship with relation to the media so you don’t get those different opinions and criticism coming back to you, but also maybe to do with the ‘let 100 flowers bloom’ event/ movement that happened.
-Deng Xiao Ping was becoming ever paranoid at this time, and the rumours that the forces behind Tiananmen were an American scheme he came to believe. (rather than domestic dissatisfaction with the party due to corruption & opaqueness)
-At this point, basically this led to the end of the liberalising trends, which supposedly WERE happening, but after this it went way more conservative. (Meaning that before this time there were factions that were in fact pushing for liberalisation, but after this, those factions were crushed, and the leadership pursued the hardliner, protectionist route instead)
-The Tiananmen Papers – might also be an interesting thing to read.
-Mr White & Mrs Green
-Miss Green sounds like a double agent spy for China, clearly giving misinformation to the US government
-So the 2 birds with 1 stone was meant to be Russian & America
-The predictions that Mr White (the Chinese high level defector that came to the US, which they ultimately chose to ignore & go with Miss Green) were bang on correct for what was about to happen in China, in terms of Confucius education, increasing national museums & focusing on the 100 years of shame, pleading the pacified outlook, this has played out exactly like he stated.
-Bill Clinton actually went against George Bush Senior and decided to take a more hard-line approach against china, that’s what his rhetoric was, and that’s what he did for a while, however he’s obviously known much later as one of the guys that gave away the biggest technological break throughs to China up until that time.
-Even in 1992 the Bill Clinton administration coming up, the Chinese were dangling the carrot in front of influential Chinese businessmen in America, me. Which is exactly what they were doing for businessmen after the 1997 handover, what they’ve been doing in Taiwan, what they’ve been doing in Australia, basically this is one of their primary tactics. And they do that to allow greater market access but also those businessmen have access to politicians and they can use them to have greater political sway outside of China.
-Due to all of this, Clintons original hard stance on China softened greatly, tensions were eased & trade sanctions were lifted.
-After the Belgrade bombing (for which Clinton was President at the time) China’s rhetoric really started ramping up nationalism and declaring that America is an enemy that they would eventually have to fight in the future.
-“Reduce misconceptions, built trust” was a phrase after the Belgrade bombing that Jiang Zeming & all his colleagues started stating.
-At that time, the Chinese translators from America were told not to translate Chinese national stuff because they were told NOT to translate the Chinese nationalist rhetoric because they were told it would inflame opinions on either side of the American political system . Me – I imagine they were told this because they believed the hardliners / nationalistic view was such a small voice and therefore it was weighted way less than the other opinions at that time.
-Look into the Wikipedia for who exactly was Mr White, & who exactly was Miss Green because they sound like 2 very interesting & capable characters.
-The FBI as of yet has never declassified Miss Green’s false reporting on China.
-Chapter 6 – America the Great Satan
“Make something from nothing” – one of the 36 great stratagems.
-June 4th 1989 was a turning point for which the Chinese government portrayed America to the Chinese people and in their relations with America behind the scenes.
(Tiananmen square massacre)
-Patriotic education & anti-American teaching
-According to the party, 1989 Tiananmen massacre was thought to be an American doing/ scheme whereas in reality obviously it was the Chinese government not doing right by its people that sparked protest & democratic movements coming up, however the Chinese government & the Hawks believed it was an American scheme to make this happen in the 1st place.
Me– seems like some steadfast stubbornness to not take responsibility for the possibility that their own actions caused this.
-Therefore they hold that date as America trying to overthrow the CCP, and that they managed to prevent that from happening.
-The ravings of the Chinese Hawks at that time, which WERE seen as the minority voice at the time, then became the official party line.
-‘The history of US aggression against China’ – by Long Teung could be an interesting one to read to find out exactly what they’re teaching with china.
-A good example of Chinese propaganda against America and to teach the young people basically to hate America.
-Museum of National History took a 10 year renovation plan of 400 million dollars , one of the biggest museums in the world but teaches patriotic history.
-Apparently within the National Museum which is located in Beijing, on some floor somewhere there are 3 titanic cauldrons which is meant to represent The Emperors Cauldrons and the new hegemon that belongs to China.
-There’s a permanent exhibition called ‘road to rejuvenation’ (all about what china has done so far to come back on top)
-So apparently left unmentioned in the National Museum is that China’s victory or rather non-submission in ww2 relied heavily on the intervention of western powers 1 that provided arms, technology and aid to continue fighting , and the other 2. Is the USA & even the Australian intervention in the Pacific to fight back the Japanese & 3 is of course the massive bombing of Japan by US forces with nuclear weapons which helped greatly to remove the burden of Japan against China.
-Plus as well the investment of America, but also me – that he doesn’t mention is the investment and incredibly favourable low interest loans to China by Japan and technology transfer in lieu of an official apology.
-After ww2 there were at least 100 major agreements for scientific exchanges from the USA to China however in the National Museum none of this is shown. They’re trying to depict themselves as incredibly independent, that they raised themselves up from nothing, with no help from Western powers and demonising everybody that had once helped them, and that had helped them afterwards they were choosing to ignore that, so nobody in the Chinese general population is aware of that because the government has chosen not to tell them that.
-So he’s saying that 3 foreign affairs university near graduates tagged along with him (to visit the National Museum) and that they knew nothing about the American aid to china during ww2, nothing about the boxer rebellion and how many Chinese were killed there, nothing about a lot of the things, because basically the university were giving selective information to these students who were going off to become spies and diplomats which means that the problems for the future will be more exacerbated because you would assume the government (the people in the lower & higher levels of the government) really would know this information even if the general population didn’t, but it then means that the government becomes even more hard-liner because they really don’t know this information, and they don’t have a full understanding of the cooperation between the 2 countries and in fact their base information regarding cooperation or not is simply not there.
–me – What actually happened with the Boxer rebellion?
-They also don’t seem to know about the Great Leap forward or The Cultural Revolution in which China either purposefully or accidentally killed millions of its own people.
-So 2nd in command or 2nd in the rank of the politburo was Li Peng, – need to check into him.
-Also, he’s saying that the museum is 200 m away from Tiananmen square and that museum doesn’t mention Tiananmen square massacre at all. It doesn’t even mention ‘the Chinese perspective’ on things, it literally doesn’t mention it at all. As if the whole thing never happened.
-So the Chinese modified history textbooks goes back as far as American president John Tyler which is 1880 something, which states that he was at that time making some agreements that were unfair to China & beneficial to America.
-The American’s history & the Americans – chapter name??
-According to the Chinese they believe the Americans & the President of Roosevelt during ww2 didn’t enter the war themselves yet lent the Chinese aid, which ensured that the Chinese could keep fighting the Japanese lending yet they could gain good favourable contacts with china, and lull them into a false sense of security so they could eventually conquer China.
-According to the Chinese thinking this was ‘watching the 2 tigers fighting whilst sitting on the mountain top’ (idiom) happy for them both to wear themselves out, and then come down from the mountain top and conquer both of them at the same time.
-Also has reshaped history to say that Nixon was doing the same ‘watching the tigers fight whilst sitting on the mountain top’ as tempting China to make a relationship with the US to make an enemy from China to Russia (a former partner) to wear them both down.
-in 2013 the Peoples Liberation College (the same as West point but for China) produced a 90 minute video called ‘Silent Conquest’.
Me – I actually have a copy of that, however its all in Chinese with Chinese subtitles and its of pretty poor quality, so I haven’t bothered to watch it yet. (could be an interesting video to watch though)
-It basically says that the USA aims to brainwash citizens, disorganise Chinese politics, and to create American spies in China with the goal of the US overthrowing China.
-Apparently Woodrow Wilson fought tirelessly to return Qingdao from the Japanese to China, however the Chinese government still portray him as an enemy.
-And as he says Franklin Roosevelt far from seeking to destroy china actually sought to save it. The intervention in the Pacific where America intervened in the Pacific as showcased by the TV mini-series ‘The Pacific’ (from Band of Brothers) American troops going in to fight against the Japanese, that was their intervention in that region.
-So Michael Pillsbury talks to a professor that has been teaching the approved materials which demonizes the US and other countries, and after trying to defend it briefly, he eventually reluctantly admits that all the faculty members that decide upon the text books are all CCP members and that they keep files on each of the teachers / professors and any deviations from the chosen coursework, material and direction is met with strong punishment which could mean ending their careers and shame them, and now with todays technology could end their whole lives basically.
-China has an ‘Institute of American Studies’ which would be quite interesting to take a look at.
-‘To Change China’ by author Jonathan Spence from Yale university.
All about Westerners trying to add value & help China, not just Americans
-So basically Americans help create Qinghua university which is like the MIT of China.
-American economic experts believe that 1 half of China’s growth rate has been due to American economists endorsing China as an investment place.
-Provided guidance in maritime development, science, technology, banking and a bunch of other industries & development.
-He went along with a delegation from the American embassy to this ‘Institute of America Studies’ to find that everything is negatively against America, and then he asks the question as to ‘why isn’t there any mention of the aid given by America?’ ‘ why isn’t there any mention of the sizeable amount of investment and scientific exchanges that America has provided to China?’
-Basically 1 of the respondents stated, ‘we have learned this information in American schools, however… this information is not included in the required syllabi from the government/ CCP.
-Which isn’t to say that they don’t know about it, or that the students don’t know about this as a whole, but it does mean that they’re not allowed to talk about this information or teach it to others.
-So as he says the primary, isn’t that they spout lies or make the propaganda, its that the people that create it actually begin believing the propaganda and believing their own lies.
-Whether or not this is done by a generational thing, me – which I think is more likely, but even with Deng Xiao Ping – he within his own lifetime begun believing his own propaganda.
-Basically China always sees America as a hegemon, always described as those words, its not necessarily the super power, but the hegemon that wants to make others conform to its own mindset, and its own way of doing things. Wanting to enforce its rule on everybody else. (and therefore this is something to fight)
-China’s leaders basically view America as being trying to dominate China throughout history and now they view China’s mission to dominate the US to prevent that from happening.
-Basically it’s a zero-sum-game. They view everything as a zero sum game, which is exactly what I’ve been saying for years.
-Everybody in Washington heard the rhetoric over and over again but they believed that the Chinese never took any of this seriously, but in reality they WERE taking this seriously, they were believing their own propaganda. And if this is true, then the Americans have had ample warning that this was happening. And it’s kind of silly that the Chinese believe they were hiding everything very well, when in reality they have been giving off warning signs left right and centre. Me -but the Americans were too gullible to believe that this was happening. However, of course now with Trump, they have woken up to this fact.
-The Times did the report of Wen Jiabao which was the $ 2 billion family wealth, and then all the journalists got kicked out of china including Bloomberg and a bunch of others.
-Therefore this began a period of more stricter controls against foreign media publications.
-Check out Colonel Daishu (remember because it sounds like Colonel Kangaroo) that continually makes American conspiracy theories for how America is trying to take over and what not.
-They believe that America planted bird-flu in Shanghai and created a few of these outbreaks. Me – whereas more likely it comes down to China poor quality control and enforcement of its own laws with regard to health & safety, that is the fundamental cause of such outbreaks)
-Compares the Usual Suspects ‘the greatest trick the devil played was convincing the world he never existed’ to China’s deception towards the USA and the world, by putting on the friendly face and pretending that everything is about harmony and peaceful rise whereas in fact it’s the opposite.
-So they said its ok for Chinese students to study Business Management, Science & Engineering, Mathematics, but not political systems within America. So whether or not (and he doesn’t seem to mention it) the government limits Chinese citizens from being able to apply to study political studies in America is another thing entirely. Or had they been doing that before?
-Chapter 7 – China’s Message Police
“Take the tree with false blossoms” – part of the 36 stratagems.
-So apparently Ai Wei wei revealed the truth about the situation that Chinese bloggers tried to inform foreign journalists & foreigners in general what is actually happening in China, and he was jailed for that. Me – probably a reason that individual blogs are banned in China, unless they go through certain weibo regulated platforms.
Me – Aiwei wei is now in exile and can be followed on Instagram
-The Chinese are basically inducing complacency within the foreign population in Beijing as well as outside, in terms of saying that everything is good, there’s nothing to worry about, shutting down the bloggers that are telling the truth, shutting down and monitoring anybody that dares to defy the government and puts them into a position where they have to explain things for what they’re planning in the future.
This could be the face they provide, University of Applied Sciences where the building is run down, and doesn’t look that nice, but goes well with the narrative that China requires aid, and doesn’t have the resources to make big leaps for new technologies etc, whereas in fact the real developments are probably made in government run labs & research centres that are ages away from the University that then claims such developments.
-Must read ‘Unrestricted Warfare’ – I’ve got the copy, dad must read it too.
-So apparently the authors of Unrestricted Warfare, when this came out in Chinese & in English, the government said ‘it was unrepresentative of government thinking’ Yet it was published by the People Liberation Army press (the official channel for governmental thinking) and the other telling part is that both Colonels were both promoted after writing the book.
-1 of the same authors has a book which compares how today’s international politics and environment resembles the Warring States period.
-Guo Zhang & Fu Chai story of the Warring States period – the story of a large power & a rising power that wants to take its place.
-The politburo (the 12 standing members) contribute directly to influenced message of how foreigners view China. The full program is a $12 billion a year program which influences all State run media, any media )blogs, microblogs, Chinese social media, (me- the wumaos) including all comments sections and opinions posted etc, but also tries to influence all foreign media operating within China.
-United Front Work Department is apparently the one that’s mainly responsible for this – it’s the 1000 workers across the road from Zhu Nan Hai. (government complex in Tiananmen area)
-So the Chinese CCP keeps a list as for who is favourable to the Chinese position, or at least believes the Chinese position and who is not favourable & actively against them. They then works with that list & with the varies entities they’ve got around the world to influence these people, or deny these people to better control the image of China that they want the world to see.
-They key thing for the propaganda department for foreign experts or looking towards China experts is that ‘China is not a threat & America should help china emerge as a peaceful player on the global scene’
-Michael Pillsbury is saying that for a time ‘he was one of the Red team’ (that he knew all the other colleagues with in that group) and the plan for the Chinese propaganda department was to provide all the relevant resources for this group to help influence others + all the relevant misinformation etc. feed them the narrative that they are wanting to hear.
-he now calls them ‘panda huggers’
-In 2004 the Chinese government launched the Confucius Institutes, which is on the surface the same as ‘Alliance Francais’ which is to promote French culture, language and understanding; whereas the Confucius Institutes hopes to promote the peaceful outlook of the Chinese people, Chinese language yes, but also a specific CCP of how China is and how it intends to behave with relation to the world. (me – obviously in a biased way)
Me– much information about how they choose teachers, and bend a system to their will can be found online, and how they don’t allow freedom of speech when talking about Tiananmen, Chinese conflicts, Great leap forward, cultural revolution, massacres etc.
–As Michael Pillsbury says ‘it white washes Chinese history’ & displays China as a peaceful & a benign nation throughout history.
-So apparently they also look at Sun Tzu’s art of war, but look at it as a non-violent perspective, try to take lessons inferring that in fact its not meant to be taken as lessons in violence. Whereas in realty ‘The Art of WAR’ & the fact that Sun Tzu was a general means that is most definitely about war and out-thinking an enemy in respect to war & strategy.
Me – essentially they’re trying to down play China’s continually violent past & make it out that China has never engaged in a war & has been benevolent throughout its history which fits very well with the narrative they’re trying to claim at the moment, ..all of this is to be in place & working well for their ability to sow complacency.
-So the official saying is something along the lines of “it is a bridge welcoming friendship and understanding from China to the rest of the world”
-1/ 5th of all Confucius institutes are in the USA
Comes with strings, told not to discuss Dalai lama or invite him. Couldn’t discuss Tibet issues
-There’s a 5th spring and autumn annals
-Sweden using the Confucius institute to monitor international students with a country political espionage, or industrial
-In Australian schools the caveat was ‘can’t discuss Tiananmen’ can say that ‘China is peaceful’
-China keeps things vague so that people self-censorship
-Taiwanese independence = cross strait relations (Think-tank speak so that researchers don’t get their visas to China denied)
-Look up Michael Pillsbury Youtube on South China Sea.
-Look up ‘the Jasmine Revolution’
-Look up Paul Mooney as well.
-Ba shuo an human rights
-China burns nearly as much coal as all other countries combined.
-40% of China’s rivers are polluted and of this, 20% are too toxic to touch physically.
-China is looking towards the East China Sea, the South China Sea & the Pacific basically because the waters around its own rivers and immediate sea areas are too polluted due to its own actions.
-Only 40% of Chinas regulation is in-line with international law & regulations
-Cancer is one of the leading causes of death in Beijing, and air-pollution is one of the major causes of that.
-Currently though, china’s percentage of cancer is less than America, although it is catching up very quickly, even quicker than it took America to get to that stage.
Me– also the government lies with its statistics so you don’t know what the real stats of cancer, and what is really the cause of it.
-There are many bans on Chinese food products due to unsafe pesticides used to increase yields, there’s a whole bunch of soil pollutants that the use. Me – I think we’ll see that trend continuing with the lack of enforcement that China has/ doesn’t have.
Me– just in Australia certain berries were banned from import because batches were seen to contain Hepatitis C.
-One part of his heading = ‘Cheaters win’ which is exactly correct.
-Currently there is an example of a company selling a single program in china, yet they received requests for 30 million updates.
-The economic development research institution determined that the China’s foreign development & foreign investment laws were the strictest compared to the 20 most developed countries.
-China will continually undermine the United Nations & The World Trade Organisation
-He talks about the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO)– a potential counterbalance/ competition towards NATO and potentially the United Nations & World Trade Organisation.
-‘Stan-man’ countries + Russia & China in which China leads.
-NATO is a coalition of 28 democracies and the SCO is 8 authoritarian regimes
-They have their own international banking / lending scheme within the SCO.
11 steps for how America can counter China & help it on its path to opening up.
Step 11 – support pro-democracy reform
China’s worried about a new cold war, and yet this is exactly something that Donald Trump and a few others are talking about.
-USA state department should fund more projects that follow the law and the civil projects for that
-America must stop just assuming that China will naturally find its way to the free market, and instead it must start enforcing these things, enforcing the laws that are already there within the international environment that China is a signatory to.
-Step 12 – monitor and influence the debate amongst China’s Hawks
China is not monolithic in its direction and thinking, so as he says that the hardliners are in the majority in their thinking and direction, there are obviously other avenues of thought and factions.
-Currently America hasn’t investigated a to who these reformers are, they should take a page out of China’s book and keep a list and monitor them to possibly help them in the future.
-“When capable feign incapable”
-Myanmar is a key strategic piece in the battle from USA to China.
-So the leaders of Myanmar were reading the notes of Lee Kwan Yew on Singapore and looking to it for how it should do its country strategy. (with relation to China & the West)
-So whilst everybody praises Lee Kwan Yew for his management of his country, the rise and the development, what they tend to ignore is his understanding on how china is, its strategy and what they’re going to do in the future.
-See if I can read a bit about Lee Kwan Yew’s understanding on China. Try to find the book which states his opinions on the Chinese & China’s rise, it was available from Yangong book store, but that doesn’t exactly help.
-The Rise of the Great Powers – produced by the CPP, is a tv series that follows the Warring States periods, could be a very interesting one to watch. (as I believe its slowly conditioning the masses to accept strategic thinking and accept certain countries (America) as the big country that needs to be dominated)
-There are currently too many false alarms about a near-term China threat
-One of Napolean’s quotes was “never stop an enemy when he’s making a mistake”
-3 intellectual traps that we may fall into which will prevent recognition of the true nature of the problem/ true situation.
-the 1st is premature fear of a China threat.
-Saying that China has made no real progress to creating military bases across the world in the same way that the USA has done. (me – this book was published in 2015, however China now has a military base in Djibouti, & is looking to set one up in Eritrea + now has the military bases in the South China Sea, which is an extension of its Hainan submarine bases as the last continental military base china originally had)
-The Yuan is not poised to replace the dollar as the global currency (as of yet)
-2nd pitfall is to misidentify China’s strategy to replace America
-Although its secret, we have enough intelligence to know what it is not – its not the Hitler like regime, its not Stalinist, its not Toto (whatever that is) it is its own machinations but we DO know that its based on the Warring States strategy and thinking, and lessons draw from America and a whole bunch of other places.
-It looks to America as to how they came to world power/ dominance & a world super power.
-Ying Pai text called ‘On Grand Strategy’ need to read as well.
-Praises America to push aside Europe to become a dominant power by 1965.
-The Communist Party school uses at least 3 books to show how a rising power can outdo / out compete and out- maneuverer a hegemon.
-‘The Eclipse of Great Britain’ by Anne Ford (or something like this); Arron Freedbergs ‘The Weary Titan’ ; & Lan Ching Shang’s ‘Recasting the Imperial Far East’
-China’s strategies are poised to take advantage of opportunities.
-It is not rigid in the way that many people assume that it might be.
-So he says that the 3rd is only relevant to US government officials.
Steps to counter China
-1st step is to realise that there is a marathon – maybe the most difficult step to take.
Notes need updating to include Steps to counter China + 11 steps for how America can counter China & help it on its path to opening up.